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Donald Tusk does not rule out postponing the planned date of Poland's eurozone accession by a year or two if the PiS agrees in return to back the necessary constitutional amendments. The PM wants to meet the opposition to discuss the issue as soon as possible.
First the necessary constitutional amendments and only then accession to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism 2, or ERM2, the exchange rate-pegging mechanism. That is the wish of the European Central Bank. According to sources close to the Prime Minister, it was communicated to Donald Tusk in Frankfurt Wednesday by Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president.
What worries the ECB most is that the euro might fall victim to the political dispute between the ruling PO and the opposition PiS. Sources at the PM's Office say most of Mr Trichet's questions to Mr Tusk concerned politics rather than the economy. Frankfurt wonders whether the government is able to build political consensus for the common currency.
Sources at the PM's Office explain that the ECB insists on first amending the constitution because currently it is in at least one point inconsistent with the accession treaty: where it says that the National Bank of Poland is responsible for Poland's monetary policy. In the 15-state eurozone that is the prerogative of the ECB.
Experts agree that it is not necessary to amend the constitution for Poland to be able to join the ERM2, the 'entrance hall' to the euro. Also sources at the PM's Office say that the amendments could theoretically be introduced only when Poland has actually joined the eurozone, provided a consensus on the changes had been made earlier. The problem is that currently this is politically unthinkable. Moreover, the PiS is demanding a referendum on the euro and a later date of accession. PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński says Poland could join the eurozone only in 15-20 years' time.
Yet Mr Tusk needs the PiS's votes to secure the majority required to amend the constitution (which amounts to two-thirds, or 307 votes in the lower house, or Sejm, and an absolute majority, or 51 votes, in the Senate). According to sources close to the PM, Mr Tusk does not like the idea of a referendum, but is prepared to accept it if Poland's accession were to depend on it.
There still remains the problem of what the referendum question should be and what would happen if turnout did not reach the 50 percent threshold required for the referendum to be valid (which is highly likely). Both issues are contentious. The government is afraid that the referendum might turn into a political affair and that the PiS would use the campaign to bolster its own position. Low turnout would immediately be interpreted by the PiS as lack of public support for the euro.
One of the sources close to the PM explains that all such referenda so far have ended in close near-draws this way or another. And that during a financial and economic crisis eurozone accession is too important a goal to risk missing it as a result of a major political argument at home. That is why Mr Tusk would prefer to make another kind of deal with the PiS. The following scenario would be possible: the government agrees for the euro to be introduced a year or two later than the currently proposed 2012, and in return the PiS supports the constitutional amendments. The PM wants to present the proposal to the PiS at the nearest government-opposition meeting on the euro. According to Gazeta's sources, however, he estimates the chances of the PiS accepting the deal at no more than fifty-fifty.
Source: gazeta.pl
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